Methodology & Analysis Notes

Last updated: October 2026

Benefora's benefit projections and scenario comparisons are based on the Social Security Administration's published benefit formulas, actuarial life tables, and official COLA history. This page documents the specific assumptions used in each type of calculation so that readers, journalists, and researchers can evaluate the numbers in context. Benefora also publishes original datasets, including the Social Security Tax Bite Index, the Social Security COLA Gap Index and the Women's Social Security Gap Index; each dataset documents its own method on its page.

Core Inputs & Definitions

TermDefinition used on this site
FRA (Full Retirement Age)Age 67 for anyone born 1960 or later (SSA OASDI Handbook)
PIA (Primary Insurance Amount)Monthly benefit payable at exact FRA before any early or delayed adjustments
Early claiming reduction5/9 of 1% per month for the first 36 months before FRA; 5/12 of 1% per additional month (SSA §724)
Delayed Retirement Credits8% per year (2/3 of 1% per month) for each month past FRA up to age 70
COLA assumption2.5% annually, matching the 2025 and 2026 announced COLA and the SSA intermediate-cost projection
Life expectancy baselineSSA Actuarial Life Tables (2021 period life table), published at ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
Discount rate0% real (nominal dollars, no present-value adjustment) in base scenarios; noted explicitly when a discounted comparison is shown

All projections assume benefits are paid continuously throughout the projected lifespan. Calculations do not account for taxes on Social Security income, the earnings test, potential future benefit cuts, or changes to COLA methodology. Results are illustrative, not guaranteed.

Coordinated Claiming Lifetime Comparison Methodology

This is the methodology behind the “$150,000–$250,000 lifetime gain” figures cited in the married couples strategy guide and claiming outcomes data.

Step 1 — Set scenario inputs: FRA = 67, PIA values for each spouse (documented per scenario), both spouses begin receiving benefits on the first month after their target claiming age.

Step 2 — Calculate monthly benefit at each claiming age using SSA reduction and credit factors above.

Step 3 — Model three strategies: (a) both claim at 62, (b) higher earner claims at 70 / lower earner at 62, (c) both claim at 70.

Step 4 — Apply survivor benefit rule: when the modeled first death occurs, the surviving spouse receives the higher of their own current benefit or the survivor benefit: 100% of the deceased spouse's benefit, or, if the deceased claimed early, the larger of that reduced benefit or 82.5% of the deceased's PIA (the widow's limit, POMS RS 00615.320). The survivor is assumed to be past their survivor FRA at the first death, so no age reduction applies.

Step 5 — Sum all monthly payments across the projected lifespan for each strategy.

Step 6 — Report the difference between the coordinated strategy total and the both-at-62 total.

David & Linda reference scenario (as published)

  • David's PIA: $3,000/month (FRA 67); Linda's PIA: $1,500/month (FRA 67)
  • Modeled lifespan: higher earner (H) dies at age 82; lower earner (L) lives to age 92 (10-year survivor widowhood period, consistent with SSA median longevity for married couples where both are age 62)
  • COLA: not applied in headline lifetime totals (nominal dollars, consistent across all strategies — so comparisons are valid)
  • Results for H PIA $3,000 / L PIA $1,500: Both at 62 = $1,053,000 (Linda's survivor benefit is $2,475, 82.5% of David's PIA, not his $2,100 reduced benefit); Coordinated = $1,234,080; Both at 70 = $1,249,920. Coordinated minus both-at-62 = $181,080

The $150,000–$250,000 range represents outcomes across multiple PIA scenarios: the low end (~$150K) corresponds to lower combined PIA households; the David & Linda scenario lands at about $181K; the high end (~$250K) requires a higher PIA (about $4,100) or a longer modeled survivorship.

Break-Even Calculation Methodology

Break-even age = the age at which cumulative lifetime benefits from a later claiming age first exceed the cumulative benefits from the earlier age, counting from the later claimer's first payment.

break_even_months = (reduction_months × earlier_monthly) / (later_monthly − earlier_monthly)

Where reduction_months = number of months of foregone payments while waiting, and the monthly benefit difference is calculated using SSA factors. COLA is excluded in primary break-even examples (consistent nominal comparison).

COLA Compounding Methodology

COLA compounding examples (e.g., $1,750 at 62 → $2,870 after 20 years) use the standard compound growth formula:

future_benefit = starting_benefit × (1 + COLA_rate)^years

The 2.5% rate matches the 2025 and 2026 actual COLA. Twenty years of compounding at 2.5% yields approximately a 64% cumulative increase. Examples are illustrative and use a fixed rate, not variable historical COLAs.

Survivor Benefit Projection Methodology

Survivor benefit calculations assume: the survivor claims at or after their own survivor FRA and receives 100% of the deceased spouse's benefit, including any Delayed Retirement Credits earned; if the deceased claimed early, the survivor receives the larger of the deceased's reduced benefit or 82.5% of the deceased's PIA (the widow's limit). A survivor who claims before survivor FRA is reduced for age, down to 71.5% at 60 (SSA, What you could get from Survivor benefits). For scenarios showing the survivor benefit advantage of the higher earner delaying to 70: the comparison is between (a) higher earner claims at 62 → survivor receives $X/month, vs. (b) higher earner claimed at 70 → survivor receives $Y/month (with an FRA of 67, $X is 82.5% and $Y is 124% of the PIA). Multiplied by the projected remaining years of the survivor's life.

Data Sources

Using These Numbers

Journalists and researchers who cite Benefora's analysis should attribute figures to “Benefora's analysis of SSA benefit tables and actuarial life expectancy data.”

The canonical citation URL for coordinated claiming lifetime comparisons is: benefora.org/articles/social-security-claiming-outcomes

Questions about methodology? Contact us at [email protected]