Methodology & Analysis Notes
Last updated: March 2026
Benefora's benefit projections and scenario comparisons are based on the Social Security Administration's published benefit formulas, actuarial life tables, and official COLA history. This page documents the specific assumptions used in each type of calculation so that readers, journalists, and researchers can evaluate the numbers in context.
Core Inputs & Definitions
| Term | Definition used on this site |
|---|---|
| FRA (Full Retirement Age) | Age 67 for anyone born 1960 or later (SSA OASDI Handbook) |
| PIA (Primary Insurance Amount) | Monthly benefit payable at exact FRA before any early or delayed adjustments |
| Early claiming reduction | 5/9 of 1% per month for the first 36 months before FRA; 5/12 of 1% per additional month (SSA §724) |
| Delayed Retirement Credits | 8% per year (2/3 of 1% per month) for each month past FRA up to age 70 |
| COLA assumption | 2.5% annually, matching the 2025 and 2026 announced COLA and the SSA intermediate-cost projection |
| Life expectancy baseline | SSA Actuarial Life Tables (2021 period life table), published at ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html |
| Discount rate | 0% real (nominal dollars, no present-value adjustment) in base scenarios; noted explicitly when a discounted comparison is shown |
All projections assume benefits are paid continuously throughout the projected lifespan. Calculations do not account for taxes on Social Security income, the earnings test, potential future benefit cuts, or changes to COLA methodology. Results are illustrative, not guaranteed.
Coordinated Claiming Lifetime Comparison Methodology
This is the methodology behind the “$150,000–$250,000 lifetime gain” figures cited in the married couples strategy guide and claiming outcomes data.
Step 1 — Set scenario inputs: FRA = 67, PIA values for each spouse (documented per scenario), both spouses begin receiving benefits on the first month after their target claiming age.
Step 2 — Calculate monthly benefit at each claiming age using SSA reduction and credit factors above.
Step 3 — Model three strategies: (a) both claim at 62, (b) higher earner claims at 70 / lower earner at 62, (c) both claim at 70.
Step 4 — Apply survivor benefit rule: when the modeled first death occurs, the surviving spouse receives the higher of their own current benefit or 100% of the deceased spouse's benefit.
Step 5 — Sum all monthly payments across the projected lifespan for each strategy.
Step 6 — Report the difference between the coordinated strategy total and the both-at-62 total.
David & Linda reference scenario (as published)
- David's PIA: $3,000/month (FRA 67); Linda's PIA: $1,500/month (FRA 67)
- Modeled lifespan: higher earner (H) dies at age 82; lower earner (L) lives to age 92 (10-year survivor widowhood period, consistent with SSA median longevity for married couples where both are age 62)
- COLA: not applied in headline lifetime totals (nominal dollars, consistent across all strategies — so comparisons are valid)
- Results for H PIA $3,000 / L PIA $1,500: Both at 62 = $1,008,000; Coordinated = $1,234,080; Both at 70 = $1,249,920
The $150,000–$250,000 range represents outcomes across multiple PIA scenarios: the low end (~$150K) corresponds to lower combined PIA households; the high end (~$250K) corresponds to the David & Linda scenario and similar high-PIA households with longer modeled lifespans.
Break-Even Calculation Methodology
Break-even age = the age at which cumulative lifetime benefits from a later claiming age first exceed the cumulative benefits from the earlier age, counting from the later claimer's first payment.
Where reduction_months = number of months of foregone payments while waiting, and the monthly benefit difference is calculated using SSA factors. COLA is excluded in primary break-even examples (consistent nominal comparison).
COLA Compounding Methodology
COLA compounding examples (e.g., $1,750 at 62 → $2,870 after 20 years) use the standard compound growth formula:
The 2.5% rate matches the 2025 and 2026 actual COLA. Twenty years of compounding at 2.5% yields approximately a 64% cumulative increase. Examples are illustrative and use a fixed rate, not variable historical COLAs.
Survivor Benefit Projection Methodology
Survivor benefit calculations assume: the survivor receives 100% of the deceased spouse's benefit, including any Delayed Retirement Credits earned; the survivor benefit is not reduced further regardless of the survivor's own claiming age (consistent with SSA rules for widow/widower benefits). For scenarios showing the survivor benefit advantage of the higher earner delaying to 70: the comparison is between (a) higher earner claims at 62 → survivor receives $X/month, vs. (b) higher earner claimed at 70 → survivor receives $Y/month. Multiplied by the projected remaining years of the survivor's life.
Data Sources
- SSA Benefit Formulas: ssa.gov/oact/cola/Benefits.html
- SSA Actuarial Life Tables: ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
- COLA History: ssa.gov/cola/
- Full Retirement Age Table: ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/ageincrease.html
- WEP Maximum Reduction (2024): $587/month, per SSA Program Operations Manual System (POMS) GN 00307
Using These Numbers
Journalists and researchers who cite Benefora's analysis should attribute figures to “Benefora's analysis of SSA benefit tables and actuarial life expectancy data.”
The canonical citation URL for coordinated claiming lifetime comparisons is: benefora.org/articles/social-security-claiming-outcomes
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